Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.067137 1.122227 1.179106 1.242333 1.310783 1.382799 1.464485
2025-12-28 0.989354 1.068713 1.154049 1.253087 1.365439 1.489622 1.638215
2026-01-04 0.927011 1.019404 1.121511 1.243589 1.386736 1.550734 1.754990
2026-01-11 0.891633 0.995033 1.111934 1.255264 1.428196 1.632682 1.896759
2026-01-18 0.857487 0.968547 1.096493 1.256713 1.454786 1.695528 2.016589
2026-01-25 0.839248 0.958799 1.099006 1.278184 1.505024 1.788359 2.178753
2026-02-01 0.801160 0.922886 1.067516 1.255141 1.496940 1.805286 2.241000
2026-02-08 0.762281 0.884071 1.030338 1.222469 1.473795 1.799983 2.271041
2026-02-15 0.737316 0.861170 1.011592 1.211792 1.477864 1.829787 2.350208
2026-02-22 0.719553 0.846343 1.002066 1.212080 1.495739 1.878309 2.458254
2026-03-01 0.695355 0.822421 0.979874 1.194475 1.488120 1.890490 2.513060
2026-03-08 0.666996 0.792251 0.948528 1.163281 1.460138 1.872034 2.519843
2026-03-15 0.648553 0.774849 0.933909 1.154974 1.464906 1.902560 2.607035
2026-03-22 0.638531 0.767992 0.932813 1.164909 1.495740 1.972726 2.762257
2026-03-29 0.621984 0.751991 0.918910 1.156399 1.499394 2.002244 2.853755
2026-04-05 0.613766 0.746585 0.918812 1.166866 1.530775 2.075144 3.023041
2026-04-12 0.602679 0.736947 0.912550 1.168164 1.548357 2.127341 3.161204
2026-04-19 0.598695 0.736606 0.918806 1.187398 1.593550 2.225663 3.390096
2026-04-26 0.581004 0.717220 0.898169 1.166756 1.576595 2.222172 3.432402
2026-05-03 0.561183 0.694462 0.872230 1.137452 1.544911 2.192592 3.423043
2026-05-10 0.548953 0.681772 0.859981 1.127867 1.543555 2.213272 3.511237
2026-05-17 0.540569 0.674127 0.854550 1.128125 1.557595 2.260512 3.655462
2026-05-24 0.527347 0.659475 0.838794 1.112311 1.545125 2.261290 3.706323